Event predictions
This page presents a selection of "best" events. These are also available through the Occultation Portal.
Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
Here below you can find predictions for events by:
- The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992) 2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188 708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1.
- NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.
For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.
By accessible, we mean events with:
- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;
- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);
- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);
- Solar Elongation >= 45º;
- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.
The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible. Also contained the Occu;t Map for every event. For the most promising Didymos events (red lines) and when requested by observers, the last column holds the .kmz file of the event with the predicted path and the topographic corrections applied.
IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.
Interesting events in the near future
Didymos
| Date | Star | RA | Dec | Conditions | Zone | Map | .kmz | |||||||
| Catalogue | Number | h | m | s | d | m | s | Mv | Drop | Duration | ||||
| 09/13/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-141022 | 17 | 42 | 14 | -29 | -10 | -5 | 12,4 | 7,3 | 0.11 | South America |  |
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| 09/13/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-141198 | 17 | 42 | 53 | -29 | -10 | -32 | 13,2 | 6,5 | 0.11 | Japan |  |
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| 09/13/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-141407 | 17 | 43 | 41 | -29 | -10 | -43 | 12,6 | 7,1 | 0.11 | South America |  |
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| 09/17/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-141591 | 17 | 49 | 7 | -29 | -12 | -8 | 13,1 | 6,6 | 0.10 | South America |  |
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| 09/19/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-146542 | 17 | 53 | 42 | -29 | -12 | -45 | 12,8 | 7 | 0.09 | Australia |  |
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| 09/19/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-147862 | 17 | 54 | 16 | -29 | -13 | 0 | 13,1 | 6,7 | 0.10 | Europe |  |
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| 09/22/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-157422 | 17 | 58 | 46 | -29 | -12 | -48 | 13,2 | 6,6 | 0.10 | South America |  |
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| 09/22/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-160859 | 17 | 59 | 43 | -29 | -12 | -39 | 13,1 | 6,7 | 0.09 | Australia |  |
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| 09/22/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-162196 | 18 | 0 | 19 | -29 | -12 | -50 | 13,6 | 6,2 | 0.09 | Europe |  |
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| 09/23/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-162938 | 18 | 0 | 39 | -29 | -12 | -40 | 13,3 | 6,4 | 0.09 | South America |  |
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| 09/24/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-171907 | 18 | 3 | 54 | -29 | -12 | -2 | 12,6 | 7,1 | 0.08 | Australia |  |
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| 09/24/2024 | UCAC4 | 304-172180 | 18 | 3 | 57 | -29 | -12 | -3 | 13,4 | 6,4 | 0.09 | Australia |  |
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| 09/25/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-187707 | 18 | 5 | 53 | -29 | -11 | -33 | 13,4 | 6,3 | 0.09 | New Zealand |  |
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| 09/26/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-194296 | 18 | 8 | 24 | -29 | -10 | -52 | 13,3 | 6,4 | 0.08 | Australia |  |
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| 09/26/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-195136 | 18 | 8 | 45 | -29 | -11 | 0 | 12,7 | 7 | 0.08 | Europe |  |
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| 09/28/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-204313 | 18 | 11 | 48 | -29 | -9 | -50 | 12,7 | 7,1 | 0.08 | North America |  |
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| 09/28/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-207719 | 18 | 12 | 42 | -29 | -9 | -20 | 13 | 6,7 | 0.08 | Australia |  |
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| 09/28/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-207952 | 18 | 12 | 45 | -29 | -9 | -14 | 12,7 | 7 | 0.08 | Australia |  |
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| 09/30/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-222450 | 18 | 17 | 43 | -29 | -6 | -46 | 12,8 | 7 | 0.07 | Australia |  |
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| 09/30/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-223711 | 18 | 18 | 14 | -29 | -6 | -40 | 13,5 | 6,3 | 0.07 | Europe |  |
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| 10/01/2024 | UCAC4 | 305-229717 | 18 | 20 | 45 | -29 | -5 | -9 | 13,8 | 6 | 0.08 | Europe |  |
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| 10/05/2024 | UCAC4 | 306-243129 | 18 | 30 | 23 | -28 | -57 | -29 | 13,7 | 6,1 | 0.07 | Australia |  |
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| 10/08/2024 | UCAC4 | 306-250657 | 18 | 38 | 20 | -28 | -49 | -30 | 13,4 | 6,5 | 0.06 | Australia |  |
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| 10/12/2024 | UCAC4 | 308-250722 | 18 | 49 | 32 | -28 | -35 | -33 | 13,2 | 6,6 | 0.06 | Australia |  |
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| 10/17/2024 | UCAC4 | 310-246225 | 19 | 4 | 28 | -28 | -11 | -40 | 11,8 | 8 | 0.06 | New Zealand |  |
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| 10/18/2024 | UCAC4 | 310-247330 | 19 | 8 | 1 | -28 | -5 | -9 | 13,6 | 6,2 | 0.06 | Australia |  |
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| 10/21/2024 | UCAC4 | 312-242295 | 19 | 17 | 10 | -27 | -47 | 0 | 12,7 | 7,1 | 0.06 | Japan |  |
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Other Didymos events for September-October in XML format for Occult ( ~3000 in total).
See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !
Potential Hera secondary Targets
| Date | Asteroid | Star | RA | Dec | Conditions | Zone | Map | ||||||||
| Number | Name | Catalogue | Number | h | m | s | d | m | s | Mv | Drop | Duration | |||
| 09/08/2024 | 29886 | Randytung | UCAC4 | 555-025939 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 48 | 2 | 12,7 | 7,2 | 0.11 | North America |  |
| 09/25/2024 | 29886 | Randytung | UCAC4 | 551-033087 | 6 | 49 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 13,4 | 6,3 | 0.14 | Europe |  |
| 09/14/2024 | 477416 | 2009 WW1 | TYC | 1342-00828-1 | 6 | 41 | 25 | 21 | 57 | 18 | 11,2 | 11,1 | 0.03 | Europe |  |
| 10/09/2024 | 29886 | Randytung | UCAC4 | 547-038284 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 13,5 | 6,1 | 0.17 | North America |  |
| 10/26/2024 | 169549 | 2002 EG105 | UCAC4 | 578-040481 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 25 | 31 | 48 | 11,9 | 8,5 | 0.12 | Europe |  |
| 10/26/2024 | 169549 | 2002 EG105 | TYC | 1915-00508-1 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 25 | 32 | 55 | 11,2 | 9,3 | 0.12 | Australia |  |
| 10/31/2024 | 29886 | Randytung | UCAC4 | 541-042528 | 7 | 38 | 39 | 18 | 2 | 24 | 13,6 | 5,6 | 0.28 | Australia |  |
| 10/31/2024 | 54212 | 2000 HJ89 | UCAC4 | 535-045002 | 7 | 55 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 25 | 12,8 | 8,3 | 0.15 | Japan |  |
Other Hera events for August-September in XML format for Occult ( ~400 in total).
Other NEAs
| Date | Asteroid | Star | RA | Dec | Conditions | Zone | Map | ||||||||
| Number | Name | Catalogue | Number | h | m | s | d | m | s | Mv | Drop | Duration | |||
| 09/05/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3939-01740-1 | 19 | 52 | 41 | 54 | 38 | 18 | 10,3 | 0,5 | 6.48 | North America |  |
| 09/11/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | UCAC4 | 717-068321 | 20 | 10 | 21 | 53 | 15 | 22 | 10,3 | 0,5 | 4.84 | Europe |  |
| 09/12/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3936-01716-1 | 20 | 11 | 16 | 53 | 10 | 25 | 10,4 | 0,4 | 4.78 | North America |  |
| 09/15/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | UCAC4 | 711-073532 | 20 | 22 | 14 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 11,3 | 0,2 | 4.21 | Japan |  |
| 09/15/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | TYC | 2419-01317-1 | 6 | 5 | 46 | 30 | 57 | 24 | 11,7 | 9,3 | 0.04 | Australia |  |
| 09/19/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3585-02677-1 | 20 | 35 | 2 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 11 | 0,2 | 3.73 | North America |  |
| 09/20/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | UCAC4 | 700-081982 | 20 | 41 | 41 | 49 | 55 | 14 | 11,2 | 0,2 | 3.53 | Europe |  |
| 09/21/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | TYC | 2422-00803-1 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 54 | 10,8 | 10,1 | 0.05 | North America |  |
| 09/22/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | TYC | 1892-00701-1 | 6 | 40 | 13 | 29 | 56 | 40 | 10,1 | 10,8 | 0.05 | North America |  |
| 09/22/2024 | 163692 | 2003 CY18 | UCAC4 | 522-018520 | 5 | 57 | 46 | 14 | 22 | 7 | 12,1 | 8,9 | 0.08 | Japan |  |
| 09/23/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3579-01661-1 | 20 | 53 | 27 | 48 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 0,4 | 3.23 | Europe |  |
| 09/23/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | UCAC4 | 600-036547 | 6 | 43 | 39 | 29 | 48 | 31 | 12,8 | 8,1 | 0.04 | Europe |  |
| 09/24/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | UCAC4 | 598-036718 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 29 | 32 | 57 | 8,9 | 12 | 0.04 | South America |  |
| 09/28/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3589-02353-1 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 45 | 28 | 20 | 9,4 | 0,6 | 2.85 | Australia |  |
| 09/29/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 3181-03519-1 | 21 | 18 | 46 | 44 | 31 | 59 | 10,2 | 0,3 | 2.76 | Europe |  |
| 09/29/2024 | 2100 | Ra-Shalom | HIP | 74800 | 15 | 17 | 14 | -7 | -51 | -24 | 7,2 | 11,1 | 0.05 | Australia |  |
| 09/29/2024 | 162173 | Ryugu | UCAC4 | 592-039084 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 28 | 12 | 60 | 11,7 | 9,2 | 0.04 | North America |  |
| 10/01/2024 | 4660 | Nereus | HIP | 86515 | 17 | 40 | 50 | -23 | -50 | -10 | 7,8 | 14,9 | 0.02 | Europe |  |
| 10/05/2024 | 4179 | Toutatis | UCAC4 | 333-149418 | 18 | 16 | 56 | -23 | -27 | -27 | 11,6 | 6,9 | 0.19 | Australia |  |
| 10/08/2024 | 137805 | 1999 YK5 | UCAC4 | 632-044956 | 9 | 22 | 45 | 36 | 12 | 9 | 12,2 | 6,5 | 0.28 | North America |  |
| 10/11/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | TYC | 3859-00325-1 | 14 | 16 | 44 | 54 | 24 | 52 | 9,6 | 7 | 0.21 | North America |  |
| 10/12/2024 | 438908 | 2009 XO | TYC | 1224-00918-1 | 2 | 57 | 54 | 16 | 58 | 1 | 10,5 | 12,9 | 0.03 | North America |  |
| 10/18/2024 | 4179 | Toutatis | UCAC4 | 334-181652 | 18 | 39 | 18 | -23 | -15 | -33 | 13 | 5,4 | 0.14 | Australia |  |
| 10/19/2024 | 4544 | Xanthus | UCAC4 | 285-106709 | 16 | 58 | 26 | -33 | -7 | -49 | 12,3 | 6,8 | 0.08 | Australia |  |
| 10/20/2024 | 1036 | Ganymed | TYC | 2221-00942-1 | 22 | 50 | 44 | 23 | 47 | 25 | 8,5 | 1 | 2.08 | Australia |  |
| 10/20/2024 | 11405 | 1999 CV3 | UCAC4 | 364-005802 | 4 | 38 | 51 | -17 | -19 | -15 | 13,1 | 5,2 | 0.24 | Australia |  |
| 10/21/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | UCAC4 | 752-049878 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 60 | 18 | 30 | 13 | 3,1 | 0.22 | Japan |  |
| 10/22/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | TYC | 4180-00139-1 | 15 | 9 | 50 | 60 | 36 | 53 | 11,8 | 4,2 | 0.22 | North America |  |
| 10/23/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | TYC | 4181-00454-1 | 15 | 15 | 55 | 61 | 4 | 15 | 11,6 | 4,4 | 0.22 | North America |  |
| 10/28/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | TYC | 4185-01144-1 | 15 | 58 | 54 | 63 | 22 | 33 | 10,1 | 5,6 | 0.21 | Europe |  |
| 10/30/2024 | 163899 | 2003 SD220 | TYC | 4192-01744-1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 63 | 44 | 58 | 11,3 | 4,3 | 0.21 | North America |  |
Other NEA targets' events for September-Octoberin XML format for Occult (>10000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).
